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The Port of Constantza is set to see continued growth in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2012, despite the adverse influence of the economic climate in most European countries. Growth in Romania's private consumption levels will support freight volumes at its ports, despite downward pressure on the country's exports and its role in the transhipment of goods. Over the medium term we project further growth at the Port of Constantza, which will seek to recover its pre-downturn throughput volumes.

Headline Industry Data

- 2012 Port of Constantza tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2%, over the mid-term we project a 21% increase.

- 2012 Port of Constantza container throughput forecast to grow 4%, over the mid-term we project a 29% increase.

- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 5.05%.

Key Industry Trends

Constantza's Black Sea Hub Role Under Threat

Romania's Port of Constantza, which has traditionally played the role of the Black Sea's hub port, will face direct competition from Ukrainian port of Yuzhny. BMI considers Ukraine's decision to develop a deep-water port a wise move, as the current trend in both the container and bulk sectors is to operate larger vessels. A port which strives to cater for this trend will ensure its position in the global shipping supply chain.

Troubles On The Danube

Freezing conditions in Europe at the start of 2012 have interrupted shipping activity on the Danube. All countries which utilise the waterway as a means of inland shipping have been affected with the river freezing over in places, leading to the cancellation of some shipping operations. The disruption comes after low water levels led to a restriction of shipping activities on some sections of the river in 2011.

The Danube Expansion Postponed

In late 2011 Bulgaria and Romania decided to postpone plans to expand a section of the Danube River until after 2014. Reallocated finances from the EU's Operational Program for Transport were originally scheduled to be used to expand a problematic section of the waterway between the islands of Batin and Belene. However, the two countries have agreed to delay the implementation of the project until the next programming period (2014-2020).

Risks To Outlook

The base for growth at Romania's ports stems from BMI's positive outlook for the country's economy. Container throughput will be driven by the Romanian consumer, with domestic demand projected to strengthen slightly. The country's real GDP is forecast to increase by 1.4% in 2012. A downside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Romania's heavy exposure to the eurozone, with decreasing demand affecting the country's port's and freight transport network and export growth forecast to slow to 4.9% in 2012. Constantza's role as a gateway for trade to and from landlocked Central Europe might also be affected.

Click for Report details:Romania Shipping Report Q2 2012