The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

We expect robust growth in the years ahead, bolstered primarily by the non-oil sectors, which will benefit from burgeoning domestic demand. Security risks, which were on the rise at the end of 2011, have not abated, with ongoing militancy in the north and, to a lesser extent, in the Delta region.

Major Forecast Changes

We have made an upward adjustment to our current account surplus forecasts owing to the elevated price of oil, Nigeria's chief export, as well as a significant uptick in non-oil exports at the end of 2011. We estimate that the current account surplus will reach nearly 18% of GDP in 2012, compared with previous estimates of 16.6%. We have made a downward adjustment to our fiscal forecasts, as we have incorporated newly available data and a changing expenditure outlook following the partial reintroduction of fuel subsidies. We foresee a widening of the budget deficit to 3.3% of GDP in 2012, compared with previous forecasts for a 2.5% shortfall.

Key Risks To Outlook

Although supply concerns have kept the price of oil high in recent weeks, weaker-than-expected demand in the eurozone, the US, or other major economies could see the price drop, with negative implications for Nigeria's export revenues and government receipts. While we believe that security risks will be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially have negative implications for investment, exports and growth.

Click for Report details:Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q3 2012