The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
While we anticipated lacklustre growth in Côte dIvoires infrastructure market in 2011, we see an increasing likelihood of growth returning to the positive territory in 2012. A combination of favourable base effects and President Alassane Ouattaras pledge to focus on much-needed and delayed infrastructure projects will propel the industry back to positive growth. Though elections were an encouraging first step towards greater political and social stability, political risk remains elevated. As such, infrastructure development will continue to rely on government spending and official development assistance in the coming years.
There are numerous factors supporting our belief the sector will grow stronger, albeit gradually: - In July 2011, President Ouattara announced the construction of a new bridge over the lagoon in Abidjan. Côte dIvoires poor transport infrastructure, deteriorating road networks and a high number of military checkpoints have had a negative impact on foreign investment and we believe this announcement is indicative of the governments desire to improve road and rail infrastructure.
- There are also signs that the business environment in Côte dIvoires oil and gas sector may be starting to recover. In December 2011, Joel Dervain, the Director General of the Societe Ivorienne de Raffinage (SIR) refinery in Côte dIvoire, announced plans to invest EUR1bn (US$1.44bn) to boost capacity by 80,000 barrels per day (b/d) over the next 10 years, in order to increase its annual refining capacity to 100,000b/d.
- Cote dIvoire-based power company Ciprel has announced plans to build two new power plants at a cost of US$311mn, according to Reuters. The gas and steam-powered plants will increase Ciprels capacity by 222MW by 2014. Construction will be funded by a bond issue. This is good news for Côte dIvoire, as the country has been plagued by blackouts.
- BMIs Africa Country Risk analysts forecast real GDP growth should surge in 2012, as the economy recovers from the 2011 crisis, before average growth settles at above 3.0% per annum. In light of these developments, we expect robust 5,4% growth in construction industry value in 2012, after an anticipated 3.2% fall in 2011, due to the turmoil that followed the December 2010 presidential elections. We do, however, warn that there are severe downside risks to our view. The private sector will be particularly wary of entering the country until Ouattara demonstrates he can maintain political stability and head off potential challenges to his administration. Meanwhile, the risk of sudden and unpredictable violent episodes remains high.
Thanks to its poor score in both the rewards and the risks categories, Côte dIvoire remains rooted to the bottom of the table in our regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). The country scores a total 28 this quarter, significantly below the regional average of 41. The country scores very poorly in both the rewards and risks categories. There is a significant difference in Côte dIvoires score and the scores recorded by the two countries ranked immediately above. Consequently, it would take a considerable improvement across a range of sub-categories for the country to move off the bottom of our league table.
Click for Report details:Cote d'Ivoire Infrastructure Report Q2 2012